Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
“AXIOS” By Colin Demarest
“Conflicts abroad and defense-contract competitions at home illuminate in real time the future of America’s war machine.Today’s closely watched fights are shaping those of tomorrow, and the pace of battlefield innovation is only accelerating.”
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“WHY IT MATTERS
Cheap, abundant drones are devastating far more expensive systems in Eastern Europe. In waters off Yemen, they embroil the U.S. Navy in fighting so intense it’s been compared to World War II.
Disinformation campaigns shape international perceptions, including in Africa, where Russia’s playbook colors a U.S. withdrawal from Niger.
Directed-energy weapons that fry electronics from afar and intercept overhead threats are leaping from sci-fi to reality. Powerful lasers and microwaves are headed to the greater Middle East.
Data is currency — or ammunition, depending who you ask. And artificial intelligence is parsing it all to aid maintenance, targeting and every application in between.
Increasing access to overhead imagery empowers commanders on the front lines and hobbyists at home to keep tabs on movements halfway across the globe. You are always being watched.
Nuclear arsenals are growing as transparency shrinks. While the U.S. and Russia boast by far the largest numbers, other players such as China and North Korea are inching upward.
The unmanned obsession. With advances in drones, robotics, wayfinding and more, militaries are increasingly deploying uncrewed technologies. What’s next, and where is the line drawn when time comes to kill?
Transparent battlefields. Hiding is becoming impossible. Infrared imaging, deep sensing, satellite photography, open-source intelligence and more all betray troop positions.
Industry disruptors. A consolidated defense industry, long dominated by a handful of household names, is being rattled by small, scrappy competitors and Silicon Valley speed. (I’ll be digging into this next week.)
The digital and physical confluence. Cyber, electronic and information warfare are having a hot moment. Coupled with high-fidelity simulation and gaming and software-defined hardware, the digital world is turning the physical tide.
AI boom or bust. AI is reshaping daily lives. Its military applications promise to be far more radical. One question stands out: What does global governance look like?
Seamless connectivity. The Pentagon wants all its forces interlinked — a multibillion-dollar push to outwit the People’s Liberation Army known as CJADC2. Reaching that nirvana, though, is complicated by cost and collaboration, as well as a history of networking blunders.
A new space race. A global surveillance and communications competition is underway, abetted by a booming commercial sector and a hunger for faraway insights. As one expert told me: “Space capabilities are the difference between being a regional power and being a global power.“
Munitions, munitions, munitions. Conflicts chew through stockpiles that then demand replenishment. Those who control the requisite resources and maintain healthy supply lines will have an upper hand.
Workforce woes. The U.S. military is struggling to recruit enough people. How can the all-volunteer force survive, and how do recruiters connect with Gens Z, Alpha and beyond? (One Army leader has suggested the metaverse.)
The bottom line: Governments and militaries that grasp these challenges and master the changes will dominate the future.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Colin Demarest is a reporter at Axios, where he covers the future of defense.
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